Timothy

Research question#

  • Influence of monetary policy on economic growth

  • I like the basic question, but I think it should be refined to be more specific, and it should employ a clear theoretical framework

  • My suggestion: Two simple macroeconomic models that have a different view on the role of money in stimulating (depressing) economic growth (and inflation) are the Keynesian (IS-LM) and Neoclassical (AS-AD) model

    • See Blanchard et al., Macroeconomics (undergraduate textbook) for a good exposition
      • z-lib.org
      • It is really worthwhile to read the book and those chapters in full
      • Both models (IS-LM and AS-AD) have a different vision on the macro-economic effects of expanding the money supply
      • The frameworks are also abstract and can “deal with” any type of currency
      • Why undergraduate instead of graduate? Undergraduate gives the same conclusions as graduate macro theory, while keeping the exposition simple and at the right level of detail
    • In general equilibrium theory, “money” is usually interpreted as a numeraire good: also abstract and the (basic) models are money-neutral
      • (This can be evidence against the view that currencies can make a difference)
    • Central banking
      • Taylor Rules
      • Paul de Grauwe - “International Money”

Methodology:

  • You have to think deeper about the data, and what specific question(s) you want to answer
  • Do you want to perform a quantitative study or a qualitative study?
  • In what way will your work add to the works already in existence (e.g. Eichengreen, Friedman & Schwartz, etc.)
  • What is the relation between monetary policy profiles/types on the one hand and bitcoin on the other?

Data:

  • The data part is clear - data on those variables should be widely available.
  • Data bronnen:
    • Colvin, Fliers
    • Working paper about Dutch central banking policy
  • Reinhardt & Rogoff
    • Government Debt & Economic Growth (historically), (2009 paper)
  • www.quantecon.com

Conclusion:

  • The design is feasible. I like the basic research question, but you should be much clearer in what you want to do. Consult some theory, so that you can formulate your hypotheses much more precisely and explicitly, basing it on established theory.